RIP Phil Pinsky

by John W Rodat on July 25, 2011

I want to note the passing of Philip Pinsky, an attorney from Syracuse, NY and former First Assistant Counsel to the Republican Majority in the NYS Senate. Among other issues, Phil handled health and welfare issues.

Some time back, I also worked for the NYS Legislature. But I worked for the NYS Assembly’s Committee on Ways and Means. My portfolio included health and welfare budgets and related legislation. I worked for the Assembly’s Majority, namely Democrats. Later I worked for the State Health Department and then returned to the Assembly.

Other house and other party … suffice to say, Phil and I crossed paths and, on occasion, crossed swords.

Phil had a successful law practice, but he was deeply involved in his community, in particular the areas, like child welfare and nursing home care, that we argued over years before. He was most assuredly, not a political nihilist as so many are today.

Phil was a tough negotiator, as in very, very tough. But he was also smart and made it his business to be extremely well informed. He was never crazy or unreasonable. If he beat you, he beat you fair-and-square because he was better prepared.

Phil kept his word and he never got ahead of himself. If he said you had a deal, you had a deal. At least in my experience, if you had a difference of opinion, it was never personal.

Though I doubt very much that it was his intent, I learned a lot sitting on the other side of the table. I wasn’t as smart as he, but I made it my business to work hard to catch up where I could. We actually got some worthwhile things done.

I’ll miss him.

RIP Phil Pinsky

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Here’s another analysis of what happens to states, this one with an interactive map and two scenarios if the Federal government can’t get its act together.

We might get some state and local defaults after all.

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Mathew Yglesias does a nice summary of how the pain (and whatever) will roll downhill if the Federal Government decides not to pay its bills. Actually, Yglesias says “can’t pay its bills.” I think it’s a matter of Congressional choice.

Note which states are most likely to suffer the most.

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Friday Entropy

by John W Rodat on July 15, 2011

Alas, a decaying rail car is not an isolated find.

Soo Line Entropy 1.jpg

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Even without a default on debt payments, if the Federal government fails to increase the limit and constrains its outflows because they can no longer borrow and if the crisis goes long enough, there will nevertheless be governmental defaults. They’ll happen downstream in state and local governments which are dependent on Federal funds.

Most obviously, the Treasury would withhold Federal cash payments to states that are reimbursement for Medicaid expenditures. These are big numbers in states like New York (where the Governor and the NYC Mayor have already made the point that the Feds need to deal with this), which already seems to be withholding cash to localities, particularly counties. But as most southern states have higher Federal reimbursement percentages of total Medicaid expenditures, they will suffer as well.

While there are obvious relationships between budgets and cash, they are not identical and even a state or local government with an validly balanced budget will assuredly feel the effects without much time passing.

In the private sector, both vendors and beneficiaries of public programs will display their own forms of default. How many Social Security beneficiaries are still paying a mortgage? It’ll just be more problems in the housing/banking markets.

Just remember, pain (and other things) roll downhill.

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Shameless plug

by John W Rodat on July 12, 2011

Shameless plug: My kid interviews Tom Koulopoulos on innovation at Chief Content Officer.

“Innovation is about changing behavior, not adopting the latest technology.” Yup.

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Interesting article on what’s happened to the business model of newspapers at Virulent Word of Mouse. There’s a lot of discussion of the mechanics and technical developments that pulled advertising into Google’s world, including … And that’s despite the fact that Google was not selling ads at the beginning.

A little later, Google invented one more thing, placing ads in designated places inside blogs, usually in little rectangle windows. A site can arrange this with Google, and Google splits the money from the ads with the site.

That invention is clever. Once again, it combines a bit of technical cleverness with a bit of imaginative energy. The computer science was not easy, but this should be understood as more than merely a technical invention. It involved a lot of entrepreneurial imagination and it involved building an organization behind it.

It also was important. It was responsible for fueling a big part of the boom in sites like Huffington Post, and others who have a little space to rent next to their blog posts.

That started to happen in 2003 and by the middle of the decade it had spread madly. “Ads by Google” became a common statement all over the web. Many little and big sites began using Google’s ad services, paying only for clicks. It was convenient, especially for smaller sites, generating enough revenue to support an inexpensive site.

It changed the ecosystem of the web. The long tail of ad-supported web began to depend on it. Many niches sites expanded accordingly. Once again, this is a long story, and I am merely giving the short version of it. Just suffice to say, however, this was another source of substitutes for news.

But it was still much more than Google:

One invention did not lead to the decline of newspapers, and one firm did not do it either. The loss of readers and the loss of ads came from the accumulation of a number of events.

Who is responsible? Let’s count. We have blamed Craigslist, other online classified sites, Overture, NSF funding, Silicon Valley’s ecosystem, the efforts of many clever computer scientists, and the efforts of many bloggers.

Given Google’s role and in the context of the current Jihad against governmental spending on most everything, it’s worth noting how important government funding was to seeding the core technologies and mathematics. No doubt, some would consider that a government boondoggle.

Let’s consider for a moment why Larry and Sergey went to Stanford to get graduate degrees. Both were interested in information theory and practice. Their advisers were too. Their advisers got their money came from the National Science Foundation (NSF), a federal agency supporting research. Indeed, NSF had helped grow the Internet backbone and many other facets of the computer science that grew into the Internet, so NSF views itself (rightly) as one of the parents of the Internet.

Did the NSF want to start a new firm like Google? Of course not. NSF was funding initiatives to improve information retrieval and storage, a long standing topic in computer science. But for years such efforts had made only incremental progress because everybody focused on information retrieval in libraries. When the web started to explode, these initiatives were taken up again, and reconsidered, and re-imagined for the web. NSF actually did its job, recognizing a new opportunity, moving funding to it, and seeding research.

Did NSF know what would come from it? No, that is not the way federal funding works at the NSF, thankfully. NSF gives its scientists considerable discretion to apply the research as the scientists, so long as it stays within the domain of the topic outlined when the research was funded.

Let me say it this way. The page rank algorithm that Larry Page and Sergey Brin employed for their first search engines was standard mathematics by the late 1990s, invented many years earlier. They recognized its application to the web. That was their initial novelty. NSF could not have foreseen that, but NSF should get credit for funding general research in this area, which had enormous economic potential. The payoff to society in this case far exceeded the money spent.

At least as of this moment, there are some interesting comments (5) as well.

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Nate Silvers, fivethirtyeight points out that News Corp News Corp lost $3.4 billion in market capitalization today.” Here’s the Google Finance link.

From Paul Hilder and then Noah Raford, observes “Rapid catastrophic loss of reputation > News Corp lost $3.4 billion in market capitalization today.”

The larger the difference between perception and reality, the bigger, the more rapid, and in this case, the more “catastrophic” the adjustment once it comes. Like the strains that build up between tectonic plates which are then released by an earthquake, the longer the pressure builds, the more it builds, the greater the change and devastation, once it comes.

No doubt there was a difference between public and private perceptions before the phone hack story exploded, but it was likely suppressed by power, powerlessness, and fear.

The plates are still shifting and there will be aftershocks.

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Editorial on open-government and freedom of information in Pubjab, India.

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I’ve been following Gaby Hinsliff on Twitter for news on the News of the World, phone hack scandal.

She wonders why Gordon Brown and his wife didn’t do anything about the reporting of their son’s illness:

amazing thing re browns is they surely knew Fraser’s diagnosis dubiously obtained by papers. but didn’t complain, ask for police inquiry…

And then Hinsliff provides a very likely, but sad and frightening answer:

..either too intimidated by News Int’s ability to damage govt (extraordinary, for a PM) or just too bloody used to it.

I’ve been categorizing posts on this topic as “journalism,” but I think I need a new category to represent NewsCorp, something like organized cruelty in the name of money and power.

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