System Dynamics

The Rich Get Richer … Connecting the Economic, Political & Social Dots

September 29, 2015 Economics

Just a reminder. I first published this in 2006 under a my old SignalHealth label and again here in 2011. It seems to get more current every day. Certainly, there are a lot of tax “plans” being floated that confirm one of the self-reinforcing loops depicted (influencing changes in public policy to the advantage of […]

Read the full article →

Jorgen Randers in Albany to Discuss 40 Year Global Forecast

January 25, 2013 Energy

Jorgen Randers is coauthor of the classic, The Limits to Growth (1972) and also of The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (2004). In early February, Randers will be in Albany, discussing his new book, 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years. I’ve never heard him speak, but I’ve read the first two […]

Read the full article →

North Carolina Needs King Cnut

May 30, 2012 Forecasting

And speaking of science and politics, North Carolina is considering prohibiting, by law, sea level rise. Here’s House Bill 819. And here’s an appropriately snarky, commentary by Scott Huler in Scientific American. According to North Carolina law, I am a billionaire. I have a full-time nanny for my children, I have won the Pulitzer Prize, […]

Read the full article →

From Sustainability to Resilience?

April 2, 2012 Economics

Ali Hibbs points us to Is it Too Late for Sustainable Development? On March 2, 1972, a team of experts from MIT presented a groundbreaking report called The Limits to Growth to scientists, journalists and others assembled at the Smithsonian Castle. Released days later in book form, the study was one of the first to […]

Read the full article →

What Will the Client Transition from Fee-for-Service to Managed Long Term Care Look Like?

December 20, 2011 Forecasting

We’ve already talked a little bit about how New York is undertaking a fundamental change in its Medicaid program. Similar changes are underway in many states. As part of this change, Medicaid clients in long term care are being transitioned from fee-for-service programs to various forms of managed care, including managed long term care. How […]

Read the full article →

What Happened to Health Coverage Around 1980, What happened the Last Dozen Years and Why it Still Makes a Difference

December 12, 2011 Economics

Interesting chart (the second one) posted by Lane Kenworthy today and some interesting debates and here on when the US healthcare system performance began to look different from the rest of the world. Kenworthy’s chart depicts the relationship between health expenditures per capita and life expectancy. Here’s my contribution from a while back, while I […]

1 comment Read the full article →

The Shin Bone’s Connected to the Thigh Bone

December 7, 2011 Business

My friend and colleague, Tim Maniccia, who runs Policy Innovation, noted some interesting connections yesterday. What triggered Tim’s observations was the bankruptcy of American Airlines. The first thing he noted was that American’s four pension plans cover almost 130,000 participants, but they have only $8.3 billion in assets to cover $18.5 billion in benefits. Were […]

Read the full article →

The Rich Get Richer … Connecting the Economic, Political & Social Dots

November 8, 2011 Economics

Inequality is both effect and cause. Inequality of income and resources is indeed a significant, even profound social, political and economic problem. But this did not just happen suddenly and, by itself, it’s not enough to explain the current unrest. That’s more because a large proportion of the public has come to the conclusion (rightly, […]

2 comments Read the full article →

Unfunded Mandates?

August 2, 2011 Budget

A major complaint of counties in New York, even before the State imposed a cap (porous, but a cap) on increases in property taxes, the constant refrain was that the State mandated a host of requirements that generate costs, but which the State doesn’t pay at least part of it. However, about 40 counties operate […]

Read the full article →

The bigger they are …

July 11, 2011 Journalism

Nate Silvers, fivethirtyeight points out that News Corp News Corp lost $3.4 billion in market capitalization today.” Here’s the Google Finance link. From Paul Hilder and then Noah Raford, observes “Rapid catastrophic loss of reputation > News Corp lost $3.4 billion in market capitalization today.” The larger the difference between perception and reality, the bigger, […]

Read the full article →